Remember, a win today, doesn’t automatically add that value onto the total. If a team has 500 power points, and gets a win over a 16-win Group 4 school for 58 points (6 quality points for the win + 4 for the group + 48 residuals – three for each win) they don’t just get 58. You have to drop the lowest score among their top 16. So, if that lowest score is a 20, the net gain is 38. Since wins are worth much more than losses, teams with fewer than 16 wins heading into today (where their best loss might be worth 12 points) and playing a moderate opponent stand to gain more than a team with 17 wins (where their worst win may be worth 15 points). (See how it works in real life below with Woodbridge.)
Ultimately, we project 36-37 area teams will qualify for the state playoffs, with 36 already in, and Piscataway being the lone bubble team to make it 37. Of those, 12 are from Somerset County, and 24 (or 25) from the GMC.
With this being the final day for games to count toward the best 16, here’s a more focused look at each Central Jersey Sports Radio-area team’s positions, based on official standings and today’s schedule as published on NJ.com as of 1 pm Wednesday, May 17th:
North 2, Group 4
As expected, it looks like Ridge will get the top seed here at 20-3 with a power point total of 580.5. There’s too much ground for Bridgewater-Raritan (17-5, 526 points) to make up. And the Panthers should be in second, with a 30 point lead over Woodbridge (17-5, 496). They would gain 29 points for a win over Metuchen today, but dropping their lowest score – an 11 – only have a net gain of 18. The Barrons should be safely in third, ahead of Bayonne (10-5, 470.5), which doesn’t play today.
Edison (14-9, 416) currently sits in sixth, and probably can’t go higher, but they do play Robbinsville today, and might need a win to avoid dropping behind Hunterdon Central (11-8, 413) and/or Westfield (11-8, 406) All three teams play today.
Franklin (10-10, 353) probably can’t finish higher than ninth, where it stands right now, but three teams behind them are within 13 points: Scotch Plains-Fanwood (9-13, 350), Watchung Hills (8-12, 344) and Union (8-14, 340).
And then there’s Watchung Hills (8-12, 344), which could pick up 30 net points with a win over Marlboro today, and pass Franklin if the Warriors lose.
JP Stevens should make it (6-16, 249); the Hawks currently sit in 14th. But Piscataway likely faces a must-win game against St. Thomas Aquinas today – yes, a rematch of their first-round GMC game, which the Chiefs won 7-4. That would be worth 43 points, minus their lowest score of six for a net gain of 37. That could get them in alone regardless of what 16th place Newark East Side (7-13, 217) does, since a win over East Orange would only be worth 19, and a net gain of 13. The Chiefs also could pass Dickinson – which is off today, according to the NJ.com schedule – and end up in 15th.
Central Group 4:
We say Old Bridge (16-8, 605.5) is a lock as the No. 1 seed since the Knights can’t be caught by North Brunswick (17-5, 569). The Raiders play Colonia today but would only net five points with a win. And the Raiders should be locked in as a two-seed because the closest team to them is Jackson Memorial (16-6) with 495 points, 74 behind North Brunswick.
However, things are a bit unsettled for the three GMC teams in fifth, sixth and seventh. Monroe is fifth at 12-8, with 417 points, followed by Sayreville (13-9, 413) and East Brunswick (10-11, 401). The Bears are the only one of the three to play today, against Notre Dame, a game that’s worth 50 points, and a net of 41 (nine is EB’s lowest power point value right now).
South Brunswick (9-12, 343) has a big game against Lawrenceville today that could push them past idle West Windsor-Plainsboro South, which they trail by 11.5 points if they come up with a win.
Hillsborough (8-14, 310) sits in 13th, and visits Nottingham today at 5 pm. That game is worth 35 points with a win, for a net of 26, which could push them as high as tenth place, but at least eleventh.
North 2, Group 3:
Since the weekend, South Plainfield (13-12, 526) vaulted all the way up to third place from seventh, with quality wins over a pair of GMC division champions: Spotswood of the Blue and Sayreville of the White. The Tigers – idle today – could slide back a bit. Randolph (13-9, 525.5) is just a half-point behind South Plainfield.
Colonia (9-12, 291) would be hard-pressed to move up from 13th place, and may be locked in, with Nutley (5-13, 282.5) idle.
Central Group 3:
Somerville (12-8, 388) and JFK (12-10, 382) moved down a spot each to tenth and eleventh. The Pioneers visit Ridge today, while the Mustangs host Ocean Township, so they could swap places, but they appear to be locked into those two positions.
North 2, Group 2:
Bernards (14-8, 410) dropped two games this week, and dropped from third to fourth since the weekend. They’re idle Wednesday, but could drop further, behind Parsippany (13-6, 405) and/or Caldwell (12-2, 404). Both play one more game before the cutoff: Parsippany at Morristown-Beard, and Caldwell at Montclair, so it’s scoreboard watching time for the Mountaineers.
Central Group 2:
Since the weekend, South River (13-7,437) has jumped Spotswood (16-6, 434) into third place. Neither can take first or second, currently held by Rumson-Fair Haven (17-4, 637) and Governor Livingston (16-6, 512), but the Chargers could leapfrog the Rams again with a home win over Rahway today, which would be worth 30, and a net gain of 19. A win avoids the top-seed until the sectional final, but Governor Livingston was the Union County Tournament runner-up, losing 1-0 Monday to Cranford in the title game.
But the Chargers also may need to win to keep Carteret (15-6, 417) at bay. The Ramblers play Plainfield today, and a win may be just enough to boost them into third over not only Spotswood, but also South River.
East Brunswick Magnet (11-6, 347.5) should be in the field, 41.5 points ahead of Point Pleasant Boro.
Central Group 1:
Middlesex (12-7, 351) fell to third since the weekend, 19 points behind second-place Shore (11-10), with Point Pleasant Beach (17-5, 386) in first. The Blue Jays play Rutgers Prep today, a 31 point win, with a net gain of 20. There might be a slim chance they can catch Shore, if they lose at Manchester Twp. (8-9-1) today. Somerset Tech (11-6, 330) may fall just short of catching Middlesex even with a win today over Bound Brook; they currently sit in fourth., and likely won’t fall.
That’s because South Amboy (12-6, 306) in fifth is idle, and sixth-place Palmyra (10-6, 298) has STEM Civics today.
Yet, seventh-place Manville (11-7, 290.5) plays at 11th-place Dunellen (9-6, 213.5) today, and that’s worth 24 net points, so they could pass both Palmyra and the Governors, moving into fifth, with a win. The Destroyers could move up to ninth, though, with a win, worth 37 points – their lowest value is a loss to North Plainfield, worth zero points, so it would be a clean gain.
Non-Public North B:
St. Thomas Aquinas (14-8, 440) remains in second, healthily behind first-place St. Mary-Rutherford (16-8, 479) and likely won’t catch them even with a win over Piscataway today. And they shouldn’t be caught from behind by Rutgers Prep (11-13, 393), which plays Middlesex; a win leaves them well short.
Idle Gill St. Bernard’s (6-14, 268) will probably hold there, with Hawthorne Christian (10-8, 260) well behind them, and idle. Timothy Christian (5-10, 184.5) won’t go any higher than ninth, but an unlikely win today by Morristown-Beard (2-14, 177) over Parsippany could bump them down. Wardlaw-Hartridge (1-13-1, 99) is in last place, in 12th.
Non-Public South A:
St. Joseph-Metuchen sits in second at 17-7, with 565 points, 22 behind Red Bank Catholic (18-4, 587). The Caseys play Millburn (21-2) today while St. Joe’s has a doubleheader against separate teams: North Hunterdon at 4 pm and Cranford at 8 pm. A sweep by the Falcons and a loss by RBC might get Joe’s the top-seed.
Pingry (10-8, 372) likely can’t jump out of eighth over Paul VI, even with a win today over Hun, while Union Catholic (10-13, 367) behind them is idle. So, the Big Blue probably stay there. Immaculata (7-12, 321) likely also remains in tenth, 46 points out of ninth, and 84 points ahead of 11th place St. John Vianney (6-14).
Revisiting baseball power points before Wednesday’s final games before the cutoff – Central Jersey Sports Radio (cjsportsradio.com)
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